Center for Environmental Economics - Montpellier - Monthly Publications feed

Cocoa expansion around Ghana’s protected areas is associated with food crop displacement and forest loss inside them

2026-09-02 14:42:36

Addoah Thomas, Renier Cécile, Guye Valentin, Cammelli Federico, Meyfroidt Patrick, Fajardo Javier, Blaser-Hart Wilma J, Garrett Rachael D
Communications Earth & Environment
à paraître

Cocoa farming is a major driver of deforestation in West Africa. While sustainability policies like zerodeforestation commitments aim to reduce forest loss from cocoa, they overlook a critical gap. When cocoa expands onto existing farmland, farmers may shift food-crop cultivation into nearby protected forest reserves instead. We analysed satellite imagery and farmer interviews in Ghana to test whether this land displacement occurs and whether sustainability programmes prevent it. From 2000 to 2019, areas with more intensive cocoa farming were associated with greater forest loss inside reserves from food crop cultivation. In 2022-2024, villages with greater exposure to sustainability programmes showed reduced forest loss. Agroforestry (growing shade trees on cocoa farms) showed no protective effect, likely due to minimal adoption. These associations suggest current policies fail to address indirect deforestation from land displacement and highlight the need for land use governance addressing both direct and indirect pressures from cocoa. Land use change leading to deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forest regions has become a major global challenge, with implications for biodiversity loss, climate change mitigation, food production, and rural livelihoods 1 . Agricultural expansion for both subsistence and commercial purposes remains the leading driver of tropical forest loss, contributing an estimated 90-99% of deforestation across the tropics between 2011 and 2015 2 . Despite international commitments to halt deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems, tropical forests continue to disappear rapidly. In 2022 alone, 4.1 million hectares of tropical primary forest were lost, an increase of 10% from the previous year 3 . In West Africa, agriculture, particularly cocoa cultivation, is a major driver of forest loss 4 . The region produces over 70% of the world's cocoa, with Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana dominating production, much of which has occurred through forest conversion, including in protected areas, especially in Côte d'Ivoire 5 . In Ghana, cocoa cultivation plays a central role in rural economies and is the country's top agricultural export, but it has also been a key driver of forest loss 5-7 . Since the 1950s, more than 60% of Ghana's forests have been cleared, with most of the remaining forest now located within protected areas, a broad category that includes national parks, wildlife sanctuaries, and forest reserves 8,9 . Forest Reserves, the focus of this study, are a subcategory of protected areas that permit regulated and sustainable use, such as the extraction of non-timber forest products, rather than strict protection 10 . This makes forest reserves a key area where conservation goals intersect and often conflict with community land-use pressures. Despite their protective designation, forest reserves continue to experience high rates of degradation and deforestation 5,11,12 . Deforestation in cocoa landscapes has been widely attributed to direct forest conversion for cocoa expansion 12,13 . In response, a suite of supply chain sustainability initiatives (SSIs), including certification schemes, zero-

Combining Foresight Narratives and Serious Games to Codevelop Adaptive Water Management Pathways

2026-09-04 10:54:14

Graveline Nina, Le Gallo Juliette, Alix Alexandre, Debolini Marta, Dorchies David, Erdlenbruch Katrin, Loubier Sébastien
Journal of Innovation Economics & Management: 109 - 140
2026

In the Mediterranean area, climate change threatens both farming and water resources. The need for methods to support reflection and dialogue on transformational adaptation strategies is urgent. We propose and demonstrate an innovative approach, co-constructing pathways for climate change adaptation and water management by combining (i) participative scenario building and (ii) a serious game. While the first explores the combination of exogenous driving forces on the agricultural system consistent with SSPs at regional level, the serious game allows us to explore the co-evolution of land and water use and related policies at the farm level. Results confirm that land use can vary greatly in a medium-term horizon. Our approach helps to envision the role of land use and diversification in future water demand under climate change. The results show that the effect of land use changes on water demand is much higher than the effect of climate scenarios.

Assessing government subsidies for reducing pesticide use: A meta-analysis

2026-09-04 10:54:16

Leduc Gaëlle, Bougherara Douadia, Ha Thi Thanh Mai, Latruffe Laure
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
à Paraître

In the efforts being made by governments to reduce pesticide use, subsidies are an important instrument to encourage farmers to adopt more sustainable practices. Yet, their effectiveness remains uncertain due to diverse designs and contexts. To date, there are no study that provide systematic synthesized evidence on the potentially heterogeneous effects of subsidies on pesticide use. The present study addresses this gap by conducting a meta-analysis of 39 empirical studies (208 models) from the EU and other developed countries that examine the effects of subsidies on (i) direct measurement of pesticide use and (ii) indirect measurement of pesticide use based on the adoption of pesticide-reducing practices. Using probit meta-regressions and qualitative appraisal, we find two key results. First, for EU studies, Pillar I and Pillar II subsidies have opposite effects on pesticide use: Pillar II subsidies are more likely than Pillar I subsidies to reduce pesticide use. Second, if we consider studies from both the EU and the US, subsidies that target adoption of whole-farm systems or bundles of practices outperform those targeting a single practice in reducing pesticide use. We provide some policy recommendations for policy design and highlight future research priorities.

Adding flexibility to payments for environmental services enhances cost-effectiveness in the Brazilian Amazon

2026-09-02 14:42:36

Demarchi Gabriela, Subervie Julie, Carrilho Cauê D, Catry Thibault, Pfefer Antoine, Delacote Philippe
Nature Communications 17: 17:9094
2026

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are widely used to protect tropical forests, but rigid pricing may fail when landowners’ opportunity costs fluctuate. Inflexible incentives can lead to contract breaches, reducing environmental benefits. We test whether flexible PES contracts improve outcomes by allowing partial payments when deforestation remains below a threshold. Using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak auction within a randomized controlledtrial, we compare a flexible PES contract, a zero-deforestation contract, and a control group. Although the zero-deforestation contract had greater potential to avoid deforestation, high breach rates reduced realized conservation. The flexible PES contract, while more costly due to higher compliance, achieved greater forest protection per hectare: participants deforested 31% less than under the stringent contract in the peak period (95% CI [2%, 60%], d = 0.12).These findings suggest that flexible PES contracts can improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservation programs.

Cross-country comparison of ex-ante sugar tax evaluations: Evidence from the biscuit, non-alcoholic beverage, and dairy dessert markets in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom

2026-09-02 14:42:35

Bonnet Céline, Leveneur Pauline, Tranchard Maxime, Allais Olivier
Health Policy 172: 105706
2026

BackgroundExcessive sugar consumption is associated with substantial health and economic burdens. Public policies aimed at reducing sugar intake, such as education campaigns and product labelling, have shown limited effectiveness, prompting growing interest in fiscal measures such as sugar taxes. While taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages have demonstrated reductions in consumption, evidence remains limited regarding their extension to other high-sugar products.ObjectiveThis study assesses the potential impacts of sugar taxation policies in France, the United Kingdom, and Spain on three key product categories that contribute substantially to sugar intake: non-alcoholic beverages, biscuits, and dairy desserts.MethodUsing nationally representative scanner data and a structural econometric model, we estimate demand, model firm pricing behavior under oligopolistic competition, and simulate the effects of a two-tiered sugar-based tax.ResultsResults indicate that firms generally over-shift the tax to prices, leading to significant reductions in purchases and sugar intake, with the largest impacts observed in non-alcoholic beverages and French dairy desserts. The tax is particularly effective among households with overweight or obese adults. Although consumer surplus and firm profits decline, these losses are outweighed by fiscal revenues and reductions in the social costs of excessive sugar intake.ConclusionsOverall, our findings suggest that extending sugar taxes to other food and drink products can reduce sugar consumption and generate positive welfare effects. We then provide valuable evidence for policymakers considering broader fiscal measures to address diet-related health challenges.

Resilience in the face of climate change temporalities: dynamic processes in coastal social–ecological systems

2026-09-02 14:42:35

Lacoste Élise, Rey-Valette Hélène, Derolez Valérie, Ghiotti Stéphane, Viard Frédérique, Longépée Esméralda, Chevallier Adrien, David Gilbert, Maurel Pierre, Pete Romain, Ahmed Abdallah Anliati, Monfort Patrick, Laugier Thierry
Regional Environmental Change 26: 156
2026

Social–ecological systems (SESs) are experiencing increasing vulnerability to climate change. Enhancing their resilience requires interdisciplinary approaches that allow the co-construction of adaptation strategies while explicitly accounting for the temporality of environmental changes. In this paper, we propose an analysis of resilience processes that distinguishes between endogenous intrinsic resilience and exogenous imported resilience. Endogenous intrinsic resilience refers to the inherent ecological and social properties of a system that enable it to resist, absorb, and adapt to change. Exogenous imported resilience refers to externally driven interventions that, when progressively appropriated and institutionalised, may be integrated into the system and contribute to a dynamic resilience trajectory. The proposed analytical approach is illustrated through the analysis of three contrasting coastal SESs in mainland France and overseas territories. We consider three types of change—slow and progressive changes, abrupt but recurrent events, and abrupt and unprecedented disturbances—associated with multiple climatic drivers, including temperature increase, heatwaves, rainfall variability, flooding, and sea-level rise. This approach facilitates the analysis of past dynamics by identifying resilience processes according to the pace and nature of change and helps to identify conditions under which exogenous measures may foster the adoption of transformational adaptations. More broadly, this study paves the way for interdisciplinary discussions on SES resilience by highlighting the interactions between ecological dynamics, social processes, and governance arrangements in the context of accelerating climate change.

Opening mines under the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation: a real-option approach

2026-09-02 14:42:35

Fodha Mouez, Pommeret Aude, Ricci Francesco
Oxford Review of Economic Policy 42: 131-143
2026

This article examines the economic rationale for opening new mines to extract critical raw materials (CRMs) in Europe, in search of strategic autonomy. We use a real-option framework to analyse a government’s decision on the optimal timing of such an investment, taking into account mineral prices and domestic economic activity. The model incorporates geoeconomic fragmentation risk as a source of uncertainty that materializes as jumps in CRM prices. While uncertainty would be expected to delay the start of mining operations, our results show that a countervailing effect also exists, which increases the expected value of the developed mine. Furthermore, we show that the development of recycling does not clarify whether advancing extraction is ultimately socially desirable, underscoring the ambiguous theoretical implications of an expanding supply of secondary materials.

Heterodox Thinking on Water Economics, Values, and Governance

2026-09-04 10:54:16

Grafton R. Quentin, Borgomeo Edoardo, Chu Long, Coombes Peter, Fanaian Safa, Macdonald Darla Hatton, Katic Pamela, Longboat Sheri, Manero Ana, Nikolakis William, Svensson Jesper, Wheeler Sarah, Wyrwoll Paul, Adamowicz Wiktor, Akter Sonia, Biswas Asit, Brouwer Roy, Doyen Luc, Horne James, Kompas Tom, Le Lien, Martins Rita, Milne Sarah, Nguyen Nhat-Mai, Ringler Claudia, Talbot-Jones Julia, Thiam Djiby, Tortajada Cecilia, Williams John
Annual Review of Environment and Resources 51
2026

Global water crises are, finally, near the top of the agendas at the United Nations and at multilateral initiatives and organizations. A social sciences– and humanities-informed emerging literature that we call Heterodox Thinking offers alternatives to much of the current decision-making on water. Rooted in water economics, values, and governance, Heterodox Thinking comprises developments in nonmarket valuation, systems thinking, risk assessments and mitigation, infrastructure investments, and understanding injustices and relationality. It is characterized by the Three Ps: People (e.g., who has voice and power and who does not), Place (e.g., locally informed and justice-based), and Planet (e.g., system interconnections, risks, and ecological and nonhuman considerations). At its best, Heterodox Thinking is informed by on-the-ground evidence and multiple disciplines and knowledge, and it seeks to value water, expose power imbalances, support human rights and well-being, and mitigate systemic risks. If effectively operationalized, it can deliver more equitable, risk-mitigated, and sustainable responses to the many different and localized water crises.

Chronic Exposure to Industrial Pollution and Educational Achievement

2026-09-02 14:42:36

Briole Simon, Salesse Camille
CEE-M working papers WP 2026-17: 53 p.
2026

This paper estimates the causal effect of chronic exposure to industrial pollution during middle school on performance in the end-of-middle-school national examination (brevet) and on high-school track choice. We link administrative records for nearly 1.8 million French students from three cohorts (2010-2012) to the universe of industrial facilities reporting emissions of thirteen major pollutants and construct each school cohort's cumulative exposure over the four years of middle school. We identify its causal effect using a wind-based instrument that exploits within-school, cohort-to-cohort variation in realized wind direction. A one standard deviation (SD) increase in realized downwind exposure lowers brevet scores by 0.069 SD, reduces the brevet pass rate by 1.8 percentage points (pp), and decreases entry into the academic high-school track by 2.5 pp. The effects are driven primarily by emissions from metallurgy and energy plants, especially particulates (PM10), reactive gases, and neurotoxic metals, and are highly concentrated geographically and among disadvantaged students