Risk and time preferences under the threat of background risk: a case-study of lahars risk in central Java

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14 January 2014

We study the evolution of preferences of villagers living under the threat of natural hazards in a volcanic area (Mount Mer- api, Central Java). Between December 2010 and April 2011, shortly after a major eruption, the villagers’ (perceived) expo- sure changed dramatically. We ran incentivized experiments at the beginning and after this period in order to elicit villagers’risk preferences and time preferences. Our three main …ndings are as follows: (1) there exists a signi…cant negative correlation between risk-tolerance and impatience (before and after): individuals who are more risk-tolerant are less impatient; (2) most respondents exhibit a change in their risk preference and/or time preference after having been exposed to a higher level of threat; (3) there ex- ists a signi…cant negative correlation between the erosion of risk tolerance and the erosion of patience: individuals who became less (more) risk-tolerant also became more (less) impatient.