Abstract

This paper examines the impact of recurrent droughts on farm size and land concentration in France over the short run (2015–2022) and long run (1988–2020). While droughts in developing countries often lead to cropland expansion, we show that in developed economies, they instead accelerate land concentration. Using panel data from 716 small agricultural regions and fixed-effects regressions, we analyze shifts in landholding patterns based on average and median farm size. Drought exposure is measured through both absolute (Soil Wetness Index, SWI) and relative (z-score) indicators. We find that severe droughts significantly increase farm size, particularly in summer and autumn, by reducing land prices and forcing smaller farmers to exit. Total agricultural land use also declines, reinforcing concentration dynamics. Simulations using climate projections show that compared to 2020 drought intensification could increase average farm size by 35ha by 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario. These results underscore the structural consequences of climate shocks and the urgency of policy measures to ensure equitable and climate-resilient agricultural systems.

Co-authors : Raja Chakir (INRAE, PSAE) et Berk Oktem (INRAE, PSAE)

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