Abstract

Many studies finds that drought fuels conflict by reducing agricultural income, yet how farmers’ adaptation shapes these effects remains poorly understood. This papers tests whether fertilizer prices amplify drought-induced conflicts in Africa over 1997–2019 by making adaptation more costly. Combining international prices and predetermined crop suitability in a transport-adjusted shift-share index, we estimate dynamic drought effects across 0.5◦ ×0.5◦ cells before and after prices surge in 2005–2008. Drought has little effect under low prices, but significantly larger effects afterward. Consistent with our mechanisms, we find that the price surge generates additional drought-induced conflicts equalling 25% of total conflicts observed afterward.

Co-auteurs : François Bareille et Raphael Soubeyran

Practical information