Abstract

How can global convergence occur without exceeding the 2°C goal? Using a new multi-sector database for 1970 to 2025, we show that global labour hours per employee and the material share of final expenditure have remained broadly stable since the 1970s. Extending these trends to 2100, we find that income convergence under credible productivity growth yields 2.6°C of warming, even under the most ambitious energy decarbonization scenario. Introducing sufficiency – reduced labour hours and a sectoral shift away from material consumption – instead leads to convergence near the incomes of today’s richest countries and limits warming to 1.8°C. Both sufficiency and a fast energy transition are necessary for climate-compatible convergence.

Practical information