Résumé

Country-specific green transitions are shaped by structural vulnerabilities rooted in their sectoral composition and macro-fiscal exposure. Green financing mechanisms, therefore, matter not only for expanding financial resources but also for mitigating these underlying imbalances. This policy-oriented paper builds on a modelling exercise that examines the fiscal and macro-financial implications of four environmentally conditioned debt management strategies in Colombia: local-currency bonds, green premiums, interest rate renegotiation, and principal adjustment. The evaluation of these strategies, based on eleven indicators, including fiscal space and exchange rate volatility, reveals heterogeneous effects across mechanisms. Principal adjustment shows the greatest potential to contribute to green investment over the period and consistently appears in Pareto-optimal strategies while the share of local-currency bonds is significant in most robust strategies. Beyond mitigating short-term imbalances, no single instrument can close the green investment gap, and debt management must operate alongside long-term industrial policies to ensure macroeconomic stability. This paper proposes recommendations for country-specific green debt strategies that explicitly account for currency denomination and are calibrated to address underlying structural transition constraints.

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